01 — The Model
How much pressure is your
acquisition really under?
Enter your numbers. This model shows exactly how many new subscribers your acquisition must source every month to hit your revenue target — and how much of that pressure lifts when retention improves.
Your Numbers
Your actual monthly revenue right now
Where you need to get to
Total visits across all channels
New subscribers ÷ total sessions (blended across all channels)
% of new subscribers who place their first order within 30 days
Blended average across all orders
% of customers with 2+ orders within the lifecycle window
% of all-time customers with no order in the lifecycle window
Everyone who has placed at least one order
Days before a customer is considered lapsed — also the window over which repeat purchase rate is measured
Assumption: In the base case, all incremental revenue is assumed to come from new subscriber conversions. Use the repeat purchase lever below to model existing customers contributing to the gap.
Monthly Revenue Gap
£0
to close each month
New Subscribers Needed
—
additional per month, on top of what you're currently generating
Sessions Required
—
additional sessions per month to source those subscribers
Reactivation Value
£0
theoretical one-time ceiling if lapsed customers each bought once at your AOV
Currently Generating
—
new subscribers per month at current rates
02 — The Levers
What if retention improved?
These are conservative, directional estimates. Each lever is applied independently — the model doesn't stack compounding gains. Move the sliders to see how retention improvements reduce acquisition pressure.
Better pop-up timing, placement, or offer converts more visitors into subscribers
A stronger welcome flow or first-purchase offer converts more subscribers into buyers
Post-purchase automation and loyalty mechanics drive second orders. Impact is scaled proportionally to your lifecycle window — not inflated to a single month
Win-back campaigns and lifecycle automation pull customers back before they go cold
03 — The Difference
What changes when the leak gets fixed
New Subscribers / Month
Now
—
Improved
—
Fewer additional subscribers needed per month to hit the same revenue target
Sessions Required / Month
Now
—
Improved
—
Less paid traffic needed when more of it converts and buys
Reactivation Value (one-time ceiling)
Now
—
Improved
—
Theoretical value if recovered lapsed customers each placed one order at your AOV
Subscribers No Longer Needed
0
fewer new subscribers required per month versus the base case
Sessions No Longer Needed
0
fewer website sessions required per month versus the base case
Reactivation Exposure Removed
£0
reduction in theoretical lapsed-customer exposure if lapse rate improves
New Subscribers / Month
Base case vs improved scenario
Sessions Required / Month
Base case vs improved scenario
Reactivation Value (one-time)
Before and after lapse rate reduction
04 — What This Means
The real cost of leaky retention
Every lapsed customer adds to your CAC
When a customer lapses, acquisition has to replace them before the business can grow. If your lapse rate is high, a meaningful share of every pound you spend on paid is covering customers you already had — not adding new ones. It's a treadmill, not a flywheel.
Better conversion makes the list worth more
A higher subscriber-to-first-purchase rate doesn't just move this month's revenue. It reduces the sessions you need to buy, the list you need to build, and the pressure on every campaign you send. The same audience works harder. That's the compounding gain.
The cheapest revenue is already in your database
Reactivating a lapsed customer costs a fraction of a new acquisition. The reactivation value shown above is a theoretical ceiling — not a guarantee — but a single well-built win-back flow will typically outperform a month of paid spend at a fraction of the cost.
Disclaimer: This is directional scenario modelling, not a financial forecast. Outputs depend on the accuracy of inputs and should be used as a planning tool, not for audited reporting. Improvements in one metric do not guarantee improvements in others. Reactivation value figures represent a theoretical one-time ceiling — not monthly or annual revenue lost or recovered. Real-world results depend on execution, market conditions, and customer behaviour. No guarantees are made about future performance.